BXMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BXMT - Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NEW)
$19.25
-0.18 (-0.93%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BXMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.73
18.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BXMT is currently trading at $19.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.13 to $19.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BXMT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BXMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$19.13 -
$19.70
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BXMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($20.94)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.13 -
$19.70
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.73
Resistance Level
$19.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$20.94
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
145.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.1%
Profit Margin
27.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.12
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.98
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$18.85
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$19.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 69.2%)
$107.81
(+460%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 69.2%)
$64.97
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 69.2%)
$55.22
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$42.39
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$38.54
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$13.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.62
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 5:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BXMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Anthony F Marone Jr
SELL
1006 shares
2025-09-17
Katharine A Keenan
SELL
4593 shares
2025-09-17
Marcin Urbaszek
SELL
398 shares
2025-09-17
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Advanced BXMT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BXMT price and gamma walls.
