CALX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CALX - CALIX, INC.
$40.26
-0.14 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
-7.49%
30d:
-18.04%
90d:
-22.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CALX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CALX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.34
44.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CALX is currently trading at $40.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.08 to $48.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (23.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+63.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+63.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.08 -
$48.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CALX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.9% below Wall St target ($66.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.08 -
$48.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.02
Resistance Level
$46.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.08
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+63.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 23.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.35
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→24)
$43.62
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 40.9%)
$154.22
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 40.9%)
$112.53
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 40.9%)
$95.65
(+138%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 24.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.65
Bull Case
$48.61
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.7
Base Case
$40.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$30.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 23.9
Stabilization Target:
$59.83
(+48.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CALX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CALX price and gamma walls.
