CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$71.33
-1.42 (-1.96%)
▼
5d:
+0.51%
30d:
+11.38%
90d:
-10.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CMC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.07
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $71.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.97 to $70.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$64.97 -
$70.75
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.97 -
$70.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.21
Resistance Level
$73.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.61
Wall Street Target
$77.80
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.97
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$73.19
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$73.41
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$72.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 7.0%)
$185.38
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$89.25
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 7.0%)
$75.86
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$118.66
(+63%)
Analyst growth 53.4%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$107.88
(+48%)
Market implied 53.4%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$47.82
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
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