COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$185.79
4.25 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
-3.53%
30d:
-8.47%
90d:
-10.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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1 traders called COF this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$401.44
Based on 13.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$249.26
25.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $185.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.29 to $199.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $255.19 (+37.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$186.29 -
$199.85
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.4% below Wall St target ($255.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.29 -
$199.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.30
Resistance Level
$196.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.69
Wall Street Target
$255.19
(+37.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$176.13
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$166.97
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$158.29
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$185.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 22.5%)
$978.28
(+427%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 22.5%)
$341.55
(+84%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 22.5%)
$290.32
(+56%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $19.27
Bull Case
$224.34
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$185.79
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$142.13
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$217.30
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Celia Karam
SELL
1099 shares
2026-04-01
Lia Dean
SELL
1692 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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