COLL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLL - Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. Common Stock
$34.83
-0.04 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
-11.44%
30d:
-0.29%
90d:
-23.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
COLL is down 11.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 72 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: COLL is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: COLL is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.76
Based on -1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLL is currently trading at $34.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.89 to $36.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.9) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.38, while resistance sits at $40.50.
Market Sentiment: COLL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.33 (+56.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.38, while resistance sits at $40.50.
Market Sentiment: COLL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.33 (+56.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.89 -
$36.13
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COLL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.0% below Wall St target ($54.33)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.89 -
$36.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.52
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.39
Resistance Level
$40.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.90
Wall Street Target
$54.33
(+56.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.6%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.26
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$31.77
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$30.34
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$34.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -6.0%)
$130.03
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: -6.0%)
$28.89
(-17%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: -6.0%)
$24.56
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$77.33
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$70.30
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$23.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$39.83
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Dieter
SELL
13976 shares
2026-03-18
Scott Dreyer
SELL
49976 shares
2026-03-03
Scott Dreyer
SELL
17600 shares
2025-12-08
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Advanced COLL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COLL price and gamma walls.
