COLM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLM - Columbia Sportswear Co
$60.01
2.26 (3.91%)
▲
5d:
+1.3%
30d:
-1.28%
90d:
-6.25%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.75
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.70
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLM is currently trading at $60.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.11 to $62.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.25, while resistance sits at $64.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.67 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.25, while resistance sits at $64.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.67 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$58.11 -
$62.42
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.4% below Wall St target ($70.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.11 -
$62.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.25
Resistance Level
$64.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.68
Wall Street Target
$70.67
(+22.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Profit Margin
5.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.17
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$50.81
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$47.66
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$57.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 9.8%)
$123.29
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$76.41
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$64.95
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.13
Bull Case
$86.05
(+49%)
Analyst growth 34.9%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$78.22
(+36%)
Market implied 34.9%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$39.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$70.09
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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