COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$1041.25
8.17 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
+2.88%
30d:
+5.74%
90d:
+4.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
12d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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2 traders called COST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: COST is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$786.34
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$488.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $1041.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $991.70 to $1022.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.2) is in line with its historical norms (44.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1042.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1042.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$991.70 -
$1022.87
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1072.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$991.70 -
$1022.87
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$985.15
Resistance Level
$1042.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.17
Wall Street Target
$1072.91
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
46.2 vs 44.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1057.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$1074.84
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$1092.03
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$1040.67
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.2, Growth: 9.8%)
$1379.60
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$658.55
(-37%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 9.8%)
$559.77
(-46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (54x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 53.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.22
Bull Case
$1333.38
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 59.1
Base Case
$1212.17
(+16%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 53.8
Bear Case
$702.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 45.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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