DECK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$119.34
19.44 (19.46%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
0d
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3 traders called DECK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: DECK is 11.3% above fair value ($107.25). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: DECK is 11.3% above fair value ($107.25). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.93
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $119.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.02 to $107.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 19.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: DECK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.40 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 19.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: DECK has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.40 (+11.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$99.02 -
$107.25
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DECK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.3% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+19.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($111.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$99.02 -
$107.25
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$97.00
Resistance Level
$119.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.61
Wall Street Target
$111.40
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$98.80
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$97.71
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$96.64
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$99.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.7%)
$185.31
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 6.7%)
$121.43
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 6.7%)
$103.22
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.73
Bull Case
$111.91
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.6%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$101.74
(+2%)
Market implied 1.6%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$68.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$103.23
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-17
Maha Saleh Ibrahim
SELL
300 shares
2025-09-08
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