BIRK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BIRK - Birkenstock Holding plc
$31.75
0.56 (1.80%)
▲
5d:
-18.9%
30d:
-19.7%
90d:
-22.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
9d
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1 traders called BIRK this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BIRK is down 18.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: BIRK is down 18.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.00
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.09
28.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BIRK is currently trading at $31.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.50 to $40.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.91 (+66.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BIRK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.91 (+66.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.50 -
$40.63
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.4% below Wall St target ($51.91)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -18.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.50 -
$40.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.12
Resistance Level
$40.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.01
Wall Street Target
$51.91
(+66.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.4%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.66
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$26.34
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$24.21
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→17)
$31.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.6%)
$92.82
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 20.6%)
$54.73
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 20.6%)
$46.52
(+49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.25
Bull Case
$39.99
(+28%)
Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$36.36
(+17%)
Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$23.21
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$40.02
(+28.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BIRK showing a specific setup today?
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