DG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DG - Dollar General Corp.
$105.65
0.54 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+3.19%
30d:
-13.44%
90d:
-30.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 02, 2026
10d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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2 traders called DG this week
50% bullish • 1 bearish
50% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.2% annual earnings decline despite 122% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.2% annual earnings decline despite 122% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.09
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.27
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DG is currently trading at $105.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.30 to $121.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 121.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.57, while resistance sits at $117.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.18 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.57, while resistance sits at $117.37.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $144.18 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$106.30 -
$121.97
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($144.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$106.30 -
$121.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.57
Resistance Level
$117.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.63
Wall Street Target
$144.18
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
121.9%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.99
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$89.03
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$81.73
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$105.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$212.54
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 10.2%)
$141.43
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 10.2%)
$120.21
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$121.29
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$110.26
(+5%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$71.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$136.46
(+29.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Bryan D Wheeler
SELL
9776 shares
2025-12-19
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