DHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DHI - D.R. Horton Inc.
$148.84
-1.58 (-1.05%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.88
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DHI is currently trading at $148.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.42 to $156.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$144.42 -
$156.33
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($160.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -9.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$144.42 -
$156.33
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.94
Resistance Level
$161.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.28
Wall Street Target
$160.50
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.07
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$153.75
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$155.44
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.60
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.2%)
$429.03
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 16.2%)
$236.29
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 16.2%)
$200.85
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.99
Bull Case
$184.08
(+24%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$167.35
(+12%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$102.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David V Auld
SELL
30000 shares
2025-09-05
Michael R Buchanan
SELL
1000 shares
2025-09-05
Aron M Odom
SELL
1376 shares
2025-09-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DHI price and gamma walls.
