TPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TPH - Tri Pointe Homes, Inc.
$46.95
-0.02 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+0.32%
90d:
+27.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TPH trades at premium valuation expecting 6.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TPH trades at premium valuation expecting 6.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TPH is currently trading at $46.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.81 to $46.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $46.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$46.81 -
$46.94
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.6% growth with -29.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.81 -
$46.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.81
Resistance Level
$46.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.19
Wall Street Target
$47.00
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-29.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-88.6%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.6% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 16.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.05
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$53.35
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$56.87
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$47.03
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 54.0%)
$172.95
(+268%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 54.0%)
$158.46
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 54.0%)
$131.04
(+179%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 22, 2026 6:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is TPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-02-23
Steven J Gilbert
SELL
50000 shares
2026-02-19
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