EC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EC - Ecopetrol S.A
$13.85
-0.01 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
+5.81%
30d:
-4.02%
90d:
+9.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 27, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.32
Based on -10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EC is currently trading at $13.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.18 to $14.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.19. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.12
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($12.48)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.61
Resistance Level
$14.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.62
Wall Street Target
$12.48
(-9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.14
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$12.47
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$11.84
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$13.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -23.9%)
$25.75
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -23.9%)
$10.10
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -23.9%)
$8.58
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.30
Bull Case
$18.84
(+36%)
Analyst growth 23.6%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$17.13
(+24%)
Market implied 23.6%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$9.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.23
(+17.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 7:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is EC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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