EXPD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXPD - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
$160.54
-0.96 (-0.59%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXPD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.94
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.87
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXPD is currently trading at $160.54, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.97 to $161.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.7) is in line with its historical norms (25.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $157.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $140.47. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXPD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $157.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $140.47. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$152.97 -
$161.67
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EXPD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.0% above Wall St target ($140.47)
- BEARISH: Market expects 1.6% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$152.97 -
$161.67
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$157.36
Resistance Level
$164.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.71
Wall Street Target
$140.47
(-13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
26.7 vs 25.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$164.08
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$166.71
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$169.38
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$161.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.7, Growth: 2.4%)
$173.28
(+7%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 2.4%)
$144.68
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 2.4%)
$122.98
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 26.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.15
Bull Case
$173.12
(+8%)
Analyst growth -1.7%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$157.38
(-2%)
Market implied -1.7%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$108.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXPD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey F Dickerman
SELL
1470 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced EXPD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXPD price and gamma walls.
