EXTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXTR - Extreme Networks
$14.58
0.21 (1.46%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EXTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EXTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.79
36.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXTR is currently trading at $14.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.07 to $16.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 85.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXTR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.97, while resistance sits at $16.17.
Market Sentiment: EXTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.25 (+68.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXTR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.97, while resistance sits at $16.17.
Market Sentiment: EXTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.25 (+68.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$15.07 -
$16.70
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EXTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.8% below Wall St target ($24.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$15.07 -
$16.70
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.97
Resistance Level
$16.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$24.25
(+68.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
85.9%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.12
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$11.98
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$10.94
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→15)
$14.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.3%)
$58.15
(+305%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 27.3%)
$29.62
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 27.3%)
$25.17
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 15.15 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.95
Bull Case
$17.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$14.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$10.99
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$18.85
(+31.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.2%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin R Rhodes
SELL
14000 shares
2025-08-28
Kevin R Rhodes
SELL
14000 shares
2025-08-28
Raj Khanna
SELL
15000 shares
2025-08-21
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