FCPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FCPT - Four Corners Property Trust, Inc.
$24.65
0.46 (1.90%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FCPT is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FCPT is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.53
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FCPT is currently trading at $24.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.43 to $24.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (20.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.12 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FCPT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.12 (+16.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$23.43 -
$24.55
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
49th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FCPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 49th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.43 -
$24.55
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.96
(8.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.85
Resistance Level
$24.95
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.08
Wall Street Target
$28.13
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Profit Margin
38.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 20.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.43
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$24.55
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.23
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.7%)
$29.36
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 4.7%)
$27.76
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$23.59
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$27.98
(+14%)
Analyst growth 6.2%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$25.44
(+3%)
Market implied 6.2%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$16.28
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FCPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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3950 shares
2025-09-16
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BUY
7850 shares
2025-09-12
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Advanced FCPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FCPT price and gamma walls.
