EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.58
-0.10 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
-2.83%
30d:
-6.4%
90d:
-3.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.66
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.99 to $32.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (23.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.23 (+21.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.23 (+21.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$30.99 -
$32.51
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($37.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.99 -
$32.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.40
Resistance Level
$31.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.13
Wall Street Target
$37.23
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.1 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.18
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$29.79
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$29.40
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.55
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.0%)
$34.39
(+13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.0%)
$34.24
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 4.0%)
$29.11
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$36.71
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.8%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$33.38
(+9%)
Market implied 8.8%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$20.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.1 to 23.0
Stabilization Target:
$31.78
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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