EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$31.18
1.17 (3.90%)
▲
5d:
+2.57%
30d:
+3.45%
90d:
+1.83%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EPRT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EPRT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.31
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $31.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.79 to $30.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.3) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.10 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.10 (+19.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.79 -
$30.86
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($37.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.79 -
$30.86
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.46
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.27
Wall Street Target
$37.10
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.96
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.75
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$30.53
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$31.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$35.56
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$34.78
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$29.56
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$36.39
(+17%)
Analyst growth 10.2%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$33.08
(+6%)
Market implied 10.2%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$20.41
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$31.92
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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