FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$104.36
-1.79 (-1.69%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$203.20
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.17
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $104.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.22 to $105.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.55, while resistance sits at $108.97.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.55, while resistance sits at $108.97.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$101.22 -
$105.68
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 9.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$101.22 -
$105.68
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.73
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.55
Resistance Level
$108.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.19
Wall Street Target
$109.43
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-57.8%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$106.79
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$107.43
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$108.07
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 38.2%)
$279.94
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 38.2%)
$269.16
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 38.2%)
$228.78
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.04
Bull Case
$126.01
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.1
Base Case
$104.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$79.84
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FMX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FMX price and gamma walls.
