ABEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$3.14
0.06 (2.12%)
▲
5d:
-4.42%
30d:
+2.79%
90d:
+1.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.56
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $3.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.94 to $3.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.94 -
$3.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.94 -
$3.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.05
Resistance Level
$3.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.61
Wall Street Target
$3.33
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.02
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$2.97
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$2.92
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$3.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.4%)
$6.70
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 10.4%)
$4.13
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 10.4%)
$3.51
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$3.84
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.8%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$3.49
(+14%)
Market implied 12.8%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$2.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.23
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
De Lacerda Eduardo Caval…
SELL
152386 shares
2026-03-27
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