ABEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$3.10
-0.01 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
-4.62%
90d:
+4.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ABEV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.51
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $3.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.11 to $3.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.11 -
$3.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.11 -
$3.23
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.09
Resistance Level
$3.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.17
Wall Street Target
$3.39
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.09
(0%)
2-Year Target
$3.08
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$3.07
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$3.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$6.57
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$4.27
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$3.63
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.19
Bull Case
$3.94
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$3.58
(+16%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$2.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$3.13
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
De Lacerda Eduardo Caval…
SELL
152386 shares
2026-03-27
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