STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$140.61
0.09 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-6.42%
30d:
-14.24%
90d:
-13.4%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 08, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
STZ is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-06-18 with 2,276 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.67
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $140.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.20 to $161.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.55 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $177.55 (+26.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$147.20 -
$161.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STZ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($177.55)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$147.20 -
$161.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.10
Resistance Level
$157.73
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.37
Wall Street Target
$177.55
(+26.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$135.32
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$132.75
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$140.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.3%)
$326.90
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 6.3%)
$168.69
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 6.3%)
$143.39
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.61
Bull Case
$198.85
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.6%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$180.78
(+29%)
Market implied 28.6%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$95.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$148.36
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-02-17
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