SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$173.18
-6.01 (-3.35%)
▼
5d:
-14.69%
30d:
-29.17%
90d:
-29.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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1 traders called SAM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAM is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAM is down 14.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$354.76
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$220.28
21.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $173.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $202.62 to $252.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $169.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $169.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$202.62 -
$252.79
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($230.39)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$202.62 -
$252.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$169.98
Resistance Level
$221.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.62
Wall Street Target
$230.39
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 19.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.85
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$147.54
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$136.18
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$173.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$382.09
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$270.82
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 16.1%)
$230.19
(+33%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$220.61
(+27.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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