FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$69.70
-0.69 (-0.98%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FRPT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: FRPT trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.96
Based on -21.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.57
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $69.70, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.40 to $69.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 49.4) compared to its historical average (42.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $62.52, while resistance sits at $73.19.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $62.52, while resistance sits at $73.19.
Market Sentiment: FRPT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$61.40 -
$69.54
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($74.33)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 4.9% growth expectation is conservative given 675% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$61.40 -
$69.54
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.52
Resistance Level
$73.19
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.38
Wall Street Target
$74.33
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
675.0%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
49.4 vs 42.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.84
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$77.46
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$81.25
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49→43)
PE COMPRESSION
$70.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.4, Growth: -47.8%)
$51.31
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -47.8%)
$23.17
(-67%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -47.8%)
$19.70
(-72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 30.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.36
Bull Case
$47.51
(-32%)
Analyst growth -39.6%, PE expands to 33.3
Base Case
$43.19
(-38%)
Market implied -39.6%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$48.62
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Olufunlayo Ol Fajemiroku…
BUY
378 shares
2025-09-15
Daryl G Brewster
BUY
216 shares
2025-09-10
Lisa Axt Alexander
BUY
100 shares
2025-09-10
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Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
