FRPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FRPT - Freshpet, Inc.
$56.60
0.67 (1.20%)
▲
5d:
-12.49%
30d:
-32.98%
90d:
-11.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FRPT is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-05-15 with 266 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FRPT is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: FRPT is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.88
7.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FRPT is currently trading at $56.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.17 to $83.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.1) compared to its historical average (42.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 79.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.31, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.44 (+52.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FRPT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.31, while resistance sits at $78.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.44 (+52.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$65.17 -
$83.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FRPT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.7% below Wall St target ($86.44)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$65.17 -
$83.39
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.31
Resistance Level
$78.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.10
Wall Street Target
$86.44
(+52.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
79.2%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.1 vs 42.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$45.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$41.26
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→43)
$62.40
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.1, Growth: 47.8%)
$182.78
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 47.8%)
$145.35
(+157%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 47.8%)
$123.55
(+118%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 24.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$54.52
(-16%)
Analyst growth -23.2%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$49.56
(-23%)
Market implied -23.2%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$43.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.1 to 42.5
Stabilization Target:
$85.59
(+51.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+51.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FRPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott James Morris
SELL
5142 shares
2025-12-05
Scott James Morris
SELL
63135 shares
2025-11-06
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Advanced FRPT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FRPT price and gamma walls.
