GVA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GVA - Granite Construction Inc.
$120.74
-0.83 (-0.68%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GVA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.70
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GVA is currently trading at $120.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.25 to $121.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.20 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GVA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.20 (+11.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$118.25 -
$121.81
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($135.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$118.25 -
$121.81
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.44
(4.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.12
Resistance Level
$123.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.60
Wall Street Target
$135.20
(+11.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.64
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$125.74
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$127.88
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$121.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.6%)
$192.37
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 11.6%)
$169.07
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 11.6%)
$143.71
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$223.03
(+85%)
Analyst growth 69.5%, PE expands to 36.0
Base Case
$202.75
(+68%)
Market implied 69.5%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$81.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GVA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Dowd
SELL
2025 shares
2025-08-28
Louis E Caldera
SELL
1500 shares
2025-08-28
Michael G Tatusko
SELL
2000 shares
2025-08-21
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Advanced GVA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GVA price and gamma walls.
