HD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HD - Home Depot, Inc.
$357.90
7.06 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+3.74%
30d:
+14.89%
90d:
+8.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.54
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HD is currently trading at $357.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $312.97 to $343.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $322.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$312.97 -
$343.00
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($370.34)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 4.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$312.97 -
$343.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$307.07
Resistance Level
$322.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.78
Wall Street Target
$370.34
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$362.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$367.99
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$373.14
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$357.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$400.27
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$366.64
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 3.8%)
$311.65
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.07
Bull Case
$421.17
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.0%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$382.88
(+7%)
Market implied 7.0%, PE stable at 25.4
Bear Case
$243.37
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 4:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lloyd Doggett
BUY
2026-03-26
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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