HLT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLT - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
$338.12
6.00 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
-0.71%
30d:
+1.58%
90d:
+9.69%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$411.42
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$255.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLT is currently trading at $338.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $331.92 to $345.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.5) is in line with its historical norms (31.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $347.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $347.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$331.92 -
$345.51
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($347.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$331.92 -
$345.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$323.24
Resistance Level
$347.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.46
Wall Street Target
$347.33
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
30.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
32.5 vs 31.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$342.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$346.97
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$351.48
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$337.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.5, Growth: 15.3%)
$518.86
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.3%)
$348.16
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.3%)
$295.94
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $9.13
Bull Case
$408.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.9
Base Case
$338.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.0
Bear Case
$258.66
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Christopher J Nassetta
SELL
114289 shares
2026-02-17
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