HP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HP - Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
$39.50
0.11 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
+4.55%
30d:
+13.05%
90d:
+18.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HP is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $32.5 2026-06-18 with 440 OI. Call ratio: 94% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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1 traders called HP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HP is currently trading at $39.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.11 to $39.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.9) is in line with its historical norms (35.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.43, while resistance sits at $41.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.43, while resistance sits at $41.68.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$35.11 -
$39.86
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.73)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -8.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.11 -
$39.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.40
(6.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.43
Resistance Level
$41.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.94
Wall Street Target
$39.73
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.8%
Profit Margin
-9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
35.9 vs 35.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.70
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$39.90
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$40.10
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→35)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.9, Growth: 772.4%)
$133.31
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 772.4%)
$81.88
(+107%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 772.4%)
$69.59
(+76%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Cara M Hair
SELL
58771 shares
2026-03-19
Hans Helmerich
SELL
75000 shares
2025-12-19
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Advanced HP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HP price and gamma walls.
