KMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMT - Kennametal Inc.
$36.51
0.38 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
-10.01%
90d:
+27.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.47
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.30
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMT is currently trading at $36.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.32 to $40.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 91.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$36.32 -
$40.22
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.14)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.32 -
$40.22
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.71
Resistance Level
$37.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.69
Wall Street Target
$37.14
(+1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
91.3%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 17.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.43
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$32.47
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$30.62
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$36.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.2%)
$70.35
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$46.22
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 8.2%)
$39.29
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.43
Bull Case
$65.25
(+83%)
Analyst growth 73.9%, PE expands to 26.3
Base Case
$59.32
(+67%)
Market implied 73.9%, PE stable at 23.9
Bear Case
$23.20
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$43.51
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carlonda R Reilly
SELL
13410 shares
2026-03-09
John Wayne Witt
SELL
5060 shares
2026-02-19
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