MA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MA - Mastercard Incorporated
$489.94
-0.70 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
-2.2%
30d:
-5.77%
90d:
-7.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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2 traders called MA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.7% annual earnings decline despite 21% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$905.08
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$561.99
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MA is currently trading at $489.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $495.72 to $514.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $489.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $647.81 (+32.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $489.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $647.81 (+32.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$495.72 -
$514.03
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.2% below Wall St target ($647.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$495.72 -
$514.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$489.73
Resistance Level
$509.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.53
Wall Street Target
$647.81
(+32.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Profit Margin
45.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 24.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$466.91
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$444.97
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$424.05
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$490.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 15.8%)
$779.41
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 15.8%)
$761.43
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$647.21
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.27
Bull Case
$711.10
(+45%)
Analyst growth 31.8%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$646.46
(+32%)
Market implied 31.8%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$333.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 24.9
Stabilization Target:
$566.59
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
6
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Shelley Moore Capito
BUY
2026-03-28
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
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