MHO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MHO - M/I Homes, Inc.
$124.26
1.81 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+0.94%
30d:
-12.62%
90d:
-3.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MHO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MHO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$222.73
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.30
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MHO is currently trading at $124.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.43 to $139.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $125.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MHO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.00 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MHO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $125.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MHO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.00 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$122.43 -
$139.18
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($157.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$122.43 -
$139.18
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.82
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.87
Resistance Level
$125.67
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$157.00
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.55
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$112.85
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$108.34
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$123.08
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.9%)
$562.97
(+360%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 15.9%)
$190.67
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 15.9%)
$162.07
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.73
Bull Case
$145.42
(+18%)
Analyst growth 9.8%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$132.20
(+7%)
Market implied 9.8%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$81.86
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$139.12
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MHO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ann Marie Hunker
SELL
132 shares
2026-02-12
Phillip G Creek
SELL
8616 shares
2026-02-12
Robert H Schottenstein
SELL
14974 shares
2026-02-12
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