MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$68.12
-0.92 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
-8.63%
30d:
+0.98%
90d:
+4.16%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MO is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.68
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $68.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.70 to $70.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $65.50, while resistance sits at $74.56.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $65.50, while resistance sits at $74.56.
Market Sentiment: MO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.70 -
$70.18
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($69.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.70 -
$70.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.50
Resistance Level
$74.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$69.00
(+1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
106.3%
Profit Margin
39.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.07
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$70.04
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$71.02
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.40
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$142.10
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 3.4%)
$75.31
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$64.02
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$94.40
(+37%)
Analyst growth 22.3%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$85.81
(+24%)
Market implied 22.3%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$47.72
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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