MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$245.16
-6.75 (-2.68%)
▼
5d:
+5.43%
30d:
+23.69%
90d:
+49.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
MPC is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-04-17 with 709 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MPC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$211.67
Based on -2.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.43
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $245.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.78 to $239.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (13.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $217.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.92, while resistance sits at $255.77.
Market Sentiment: MPC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $217.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$203.78 -
$239.17
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MPC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.3% above Wall St target ($217.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$203.78 -
$239.17
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.92
Resistance Level
$255.77
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.13
Wall Street Target
$217.44
(-11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
350.7%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 13.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$247.61
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$250.09
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$252.59
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$244.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -8.4%)
$297.68
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: -8.4%)
$188.14
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: -8.4%)
$159.92
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.23
Bull Case
$289.64
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$263.31
(+13%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$158.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
1626 shares
2026-03-13
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1037 shares
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1810 shares
2026-03-11
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Advanced MPC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPC price and gamma walls.
