MPC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
$176.19
0.45 (0.26%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.57
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.18
10.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPC is currently trading at $176.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.67 to $177.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.08, while resistance sits at $182.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.83 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $170.08, while resistance sits at $182.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $194.83 (+10.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$166.67 -
$177.35
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($194.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$166.67 -
$177.35
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.08
Resistance Level
$182.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.47
Wall Street Target
$194.83
(+10.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
141.2%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$180.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$184.64
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$189.25
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$175.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 38.4%)
$771.83
(+339%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 38.4%)
$466.24
(+165%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 38.4%)
$396.31
(+126%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.39
Bull Case
$262.88
(+49%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$238.98
(+36%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case
$116.97
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Molly R Benson
SELL
10879 shares
2025-08-15
David Taylor
BUY
2025-08-14
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