NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$77.49
0.94 (1.23%)
▲
5d:
+1.4%
30d:
+8.97%
90d:
-5.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NHI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NHI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.53
Based on -36.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $77.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.24 to $75.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.5) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$70.24 -
$75.60
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($82.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.24 -
$75.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.94
Resistance Level
$76.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.46
Wall Street Target
$82.88
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
36.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.26
(0%)
2-Year Target
$77.03
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$76.79
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$77.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: -76.3%)
$56.49
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -76.3%)
$54.78
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -76.3%)
$46.56
(-40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$93.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 27.2
Base Case
$85.19
(+10%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$52.05
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.5 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$78.32
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-15
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