NKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NKE - Nike, Inc.
$61.81
-0.79 (-1.26%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 19, 2026
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4 traders called NKE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NKE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$115.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.01
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NKE is currently trading at $61.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.92 to $65.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.3) compared to its historical average (30.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.38 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NKE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $76.38 (+22.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$60.92 -
$65.74
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($76.38)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.92 -
$65.74
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.36
Resistance Level
$66.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.28
Wall Street Target
$76.38
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.1%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.3 vs 30.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.41
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$56.38
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$53.50
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→31)
$62.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 49.7%)
$210.02
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 49.7%)
$178.22
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 49.7%)
$151.49
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$96.27
(+54%)
Analyst growth 38.7%, PE expands to 40.6
Base Case
$87.51
(+40%)
Market implied 38.7%, PE stable at 36.9
Bear Case
$42.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 30.7
Stabilization Target:
$73.13
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Treasure Heinle
SELL
4300 shares
2025-10-06
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Mark G Parker
SELL
86078 shares
2025-08-14
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