DECK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
$104.69
4.36 (4.35%)
▲
5d:
+2.05%
30d:
-5.51%
90d:
+3.75%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DECK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DECK shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.48
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DECK is currently trading at $104.69, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.92 to $112.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.2) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.86 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DECK is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.86 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$103.92 -
$112.87
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($126.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$103.92 -
$112.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.13
Resistance Level
$115.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.18
Wall Street Target
$126.86
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.43
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$102.19
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$100.97
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$104.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$197.83
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$128.79
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$109.47
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.02
Bull Case
$116.07
(+11%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$105.52
(+1%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$68.22
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$108.53
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DECK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Anne Spangenberg
SELL
4063 shares
2026-02-13
Robin Spring-Green
SELL
347 shares
2026-02-13
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