ODFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ODFL - Old Dominion Freight Line
$204.13
1.01 (0.50%)
▲
5d:
+4.62%
30d:
-6.26%
90d:
+5.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ODFL is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-07-17 with 352 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ODFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.39
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ODFL is currently trading at $204.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.16 to $217.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.9) is in line with its historical norms (32.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $206.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ODFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $206.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$197.16 -
$217.78
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($210.61)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$197.16 -
$217.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$186.89
Resistance Level
$206.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.91
Wall Street Target
$210.61
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
32.9 vs 32.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$204.14
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$205.16
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$206.18
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$202.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$313.62
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.6%)
$210.32
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 15.6%)
$178.77
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$281.79
(+39%)
Analyst growth 28.9%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$256.17
(+26%)
Market implied 28.9%, PE stable at 41.5
Bear Case
$135.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ODFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Earl E Congdon
SELL
25000 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David S Congdon
SELL
52000 shares
2026-02-19
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Advanced ODFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ODFL price and gamma walls.
