PAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$156.79
0.12 (0.08%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$185.41
Based on 2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $156.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.63 to $165.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $180.33 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $154.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $180.33 (+15.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$159.63 -
$165.48
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($180.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$159.63 -
$165.48
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.72
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$154.05
Resistance Level
$169.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.47
Wall Street Target
$180.33
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.7%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.48
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$152.31
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$150.18
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$157.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.0%)
$313.94
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 1.0%)
$161.47
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 1.0%)
$137.25
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.20
Bull Case
$168.68
(+8%)
Analyst growth -3.8%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$153.35
(-2%)
Market implied -3.8%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$108.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$163.92
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michelle Hulgrave
SELL
1100 shares
2025-08-19
Lisa Ann Davis
SELL
1604 shares
2025-08-18
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
