PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$19.90
-0.13 (-0.65%)
▼
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
-6.44%
90d:
+23.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PBR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PBR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.01
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.98
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $19.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.14 to $21.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.3) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.14 -
$21.56
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.85)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.14 -
$21.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.50
Resistance Level
$20.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.29
Wall Street Target
$21.85
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.73
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$17.62
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$16.58
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$20.05
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 14.1%)
$122.86
(+517%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 14.1%)
$29.57
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 14.1%)
$25.13
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.21
Bull Case
$25.81
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 6.9
Base Case
$23.46
(+18%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$13.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$24.06
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 7:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
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2026-04-02
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
SELL
19 shares
2026-04-01
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