PHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$118.33
0.72 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
+0.13%
30d:
-10.38%
90d:
+0.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
PHM is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $115 2026-06-18 with 1,524 OI. Call ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PHM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PHM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$186.37
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$115.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $118.33, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.78 to $133.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.43 (+22.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.43 (+22.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$116.78 -
$133.91
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PHM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($143.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$116.78 -
$133.91
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.26
Resistance Level
$120.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.39
Wall Street Target
$143.43
(+22.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-42.1%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.08
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$110.66
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$107.34
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$117.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$349.38
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$162.35
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.3%)
$138.00
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.12
Bull Case
$128.32
(+8%)
Analyst growth 1.8%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$116.66
(-2%)
Market implied 1.8%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$77.89
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 11.4
Stabilization Target:
$129.10
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin A Henry
SELL
5173 shares
2026-02-24
Brien P O'meara
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-06
Matthew William Koart
SELL
15309 shares
2026-02-06
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Advanced PHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PHM price and gamma walls.
