PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$170.77
-0.34 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
+2.64%
30d:
+5.9%
90d:
-6.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
PM is up 4.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $140 2026-06-18 with 5,277 OI. Put ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.54
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $170.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.87 to $167.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.7) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $172.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $192.07 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $172.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $192.07 (+12.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$157.87 -
$167.63
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($192.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$157.87 -
$167.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.67
Resistance Level
$172.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.71
Wall Street Target
$192.07
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.91
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$168.72
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$167.54
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$171.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$258.10
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: 8.7%)
$220.06
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$187.05
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$241.67
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.8%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$219.70
(+28%)
Market implied 28.8%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$115.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.7 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$174.71
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 08, 2026 3:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-23
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SELL
2026-03-20
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