STLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc
$179.57
-2.40 (-1.32%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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2 traders called STLD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STLD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$292.00
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$181.31
1.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $179.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.26 to $177.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $170.20, while resistance sits at $185.56.
Market Sentiment: STLD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $170.20, while resistance sits at $185.56.
Market Sentiment: STLD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$170.26 -
$177.67
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($193.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$170.26 -
$177.67
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.20
Resistance Level
$185.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.53
Wall Street Target
$193.10
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.0%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$174.00
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$168.61
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$163.38
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$179.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$492.18
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 12.3%)
$254.57
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$216.38
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.98
Bull Case
$368.45
(+105%)
Analyst growth 92.1%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$334.95
(+87%)
Market implied 92.1%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$118.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$197.72
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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