STRA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STRA - Strategic Education, Inc. Common Stock

SERVICES-EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
$79.03
0.29 (0.37%) ▲
5d: -0.08%
30d: -1.73%
90d: +6.71%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STRA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.19
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.18
7.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STRA is currently trading at $79.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.77 to $82.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (11.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STRA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $80.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: STRA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.00 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $76.77 - $82.66
Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 81.0%

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.00)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $76.77 - $82.66
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $76.42
Resistance Level $80.99
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of May 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.76
Wall Street Target $87.00 (+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 19.4%
Profit Margin 10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History -5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical 9.8 vs 11.4 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -5.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $75.08 (-5%)
2-Year Target $71.32 (-10%)
3-Year Target $67.76 (-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→11) $79.10 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.0, Growth: 12.6%) $254.76 (+222%)
Base: (SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 12.6%) $112.87 (+43%)
Bear: (PE: 8.3, Growth: 12.6%) $95.94 (+21%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.65
Bull Case $124.07 (+57%)
Analyst growth 43.2%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case $112.79 (+43%)
Market implied 43.2%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case $53.54 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 11.4
Stabilization Target: $92.26 (+16.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +16.7%
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Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael Thawley BUY 665 shares 2026-04-24
Lizette Benedi Herraiz SELL 2982 shares 2026-03-18
Lizette Benedi Herraiz SELL 7598 shares 2026-03-13

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