STZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STZ - Constellation Brands, Inc.
$151.09
1.09 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
-0.31%
30d:
-3.16%
90d:
+7.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 08, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: STZ shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.57
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.71
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STZ is currently trading at $151.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $148.78 to $155.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $148.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.50 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STZ is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $148.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: STZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $171.50 (+13.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$148.78 -
$155.52
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($171.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with -9.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$148.78 -
$155.52
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.30
Resistance Level
$155.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.22
Wall Street Target
$171.50
(+13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.60
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$154.13
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$155.67
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$151.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.4%)
$333.03
(+120%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 6.4%)
$182.06
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.4%)
$154.75
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.37
Bull Case
$319.48
(+110%)
Analyst growth 94.1%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$290.44
(+91%)
Market implied 94.1%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$101.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-06
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-12-19
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