FMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMX - FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.
$122.25
0.87 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
-0.71%
30d:
+3.85%
90d:
+6.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FMX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.62
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMX is currently trading at $122.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.55 to $121.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.9) is in line with its historical norms (22.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FMX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.55 -
$121.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($123.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.55 -
$121.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.12
Resistance Level
$125.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.95
Wall Street Target
$123.95
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.8%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 22.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.35
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$124.46
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$125.58
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$122.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 10.3%)
$164.14
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.3%)
$158.08
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 10.3%)
$134.37
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.61
Bull Case
$155.34
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.6%, PE expands to 29.2
Base Case
$141.22
(+16%)
Market implied 15.6%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$83.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 11:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52311 shares
2026-03-27
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-25
Garza Alfonso Garza
SELL
52316 shares
2026-03-23
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