TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$76.59
1.40 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
+0.46%
30d:
+7.01%
90d:
+7.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TNL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TNL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.30
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $76.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.91 to $76.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $73.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.08 (+13.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$69.91 -
$76.45
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($87.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.91 -
$76.45
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.30
Resistance Level
$73.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.04
Wall Street Target
$87.08
(+13.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$77.82
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$78.44
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$76.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.1%)
$281.22
(+267%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 15.1%)
$116.69
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 15.1%)
$99.18
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$165.42
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$150.38
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$51.13
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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