TNL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TNL - Travel + Leisure Co.
$63.22
0.69 (1.10%)
▲
5d:
-0.61%
30d:
-19.29%
90d:
-13.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TNL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$119.65
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.29
14.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TNL is currently trading at $63.22, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.28 to $74.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.08 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TNL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.08 (+37.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$62.28 -
$74.54
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.7% below Wall St target ($86.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.28 -
$74.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.21
Resistance Level
$66.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.35
Wall Street Target
$86.08
(+37.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.59
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$54.90
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$51.44
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$62.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.3%)
$287.94
(+361%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 15.3%)
$95.87
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 15.3%)
$81.49
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$139.88
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.5
Base Case
$127.16
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$43.23
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$75.74
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TNL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik D Hoag
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-23
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
9443 shares
2026-04-17
Michael Dean Brown
SELL
1109 shares
2026-04-16
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