UNP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNP - Union Pacific Corp.
$270.56
1.22 (0.45%)
▲
5d:
+2.23%
30d:
+7.76%
90d:
+3.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UNP is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$346.90
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNP is currently trading at $270.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $250.79 to $268.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $270.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $270.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$250.79 -
$268.19
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UNP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($291.05)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$250.79 -
$268.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$261.04
Resistance Level
$270.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.77
Wall Street Target
$291.05
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$276.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$282.04
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$287.97
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$270.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.8%)
$389.52
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$348.92
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 8.8%)
$296.58
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.15
Bull Case
$333.72
(+23%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$303.38
(+12%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$183.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric J Gehringer
SELL
1999 shares
2026-03-20
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Advanced UNP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UNP price and gamma walls.
