UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$106.22
0.23 (0.22%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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17 traders called UPS this week
92% bullish • 2 bearish
92% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UPS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.07
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.36
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $106.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.47 to $108.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$101.47 -
$108.10
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($111.93)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$101.47 -
$108.10
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.59
Resistance Level
$112.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.35
Wall Street Target
$111.93
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$101.59
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$99.45
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$105.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$253.45
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$151.67
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 12.7%)
$128.92
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.56
Bull Case
$142.70
(+35%)
Analyst growth 21.0%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$129.72
(+22%)
Market implied 21.0%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$72.90
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$112.78
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
5
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Marjorie Taylor Greene
BUY
2025-10-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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