UPS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPS - United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
$94.95
0.15 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-2.78%
30d:
-18.12%
90d:
-5.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
UPS is down 3.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-05-15 with 11,570 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: UPS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$166.52
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.40
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPS is currently trading at $94.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.99 to $112.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.07 (+19.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: UPS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.07 (+19.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$95.99 -
$112.34
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.07)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$95.99 -
$112.34
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.06
Resistance Level
$99.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.92
Wall Street Target
$113.07
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 13.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.20
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$85.69
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$81.41
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$94.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.1%)
$257.90
(+172%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 13.1%)
$137.53
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 13.1%)
$116.90
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.56
Bull Case
$127.95
(+31%)
Analyst growth 21.3%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$116.32
(+19%)
Market implied 21.3%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$65.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.9
Stabilization Target:
$110.73
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
3
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Norman M Brothers Jr
SELL
25014 shares
2026-01-28
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
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Advanced UPS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UPS price and gamma walls.
