ABEV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABEV - AMBEV S.A.
$2.93
-0.04 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
+3.9%
30d:
-1.68%
90d:
+18.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABEV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABEV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.31
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.68
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABEV is currently trading at $2.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.81 to $3.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ABEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABEV is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ABEV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$2.81 -
$3.08
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2.81 -
$3.08
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.70
Resistance Level
$2.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.81
Wall Street Target
$3.10
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.90
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$2.88
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$2.85
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$2.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 10.9%)
$5.95
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$3.99
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 10.9%)
$3.39
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.19
Bull Case
$3.32
(+19%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$3.02
(+8%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$1.84
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 14.2
Stabilization Target:
$3.01
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABEV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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