ABG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABG - Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$194.03
-1.38 (-0.71%)
▼
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
-8.23%
90d:
-17.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$328.42
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$203.92
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABG is currently trading at $194.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $190.51 to $211.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $184.61, while resistance sits at $199.99.
Market Sentiment: ABG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.78 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $184.61, while resistance sits at $199.99.
Market Sentiment: ABG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $253.78 (+30.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$190.51 -
$211.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($253.78)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$190.51 -
$211.54
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.61
Resistance Level
$199.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$253.78
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.4%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.16
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$172.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$163.22
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$194.03
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$897.64
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 10.7%)
$263.54
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 10.7%)
$224.01
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $25.13
Bull Case
$240.04
(+25%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$218.22
(+14%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$125.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$230.65
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
B. Christopher Disantis
BUY
500 shares
2026-03-10
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