ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.63
0.27 (2.38%)
▲
5d:
-6.44%
30d:
-0.77%
90d:
+3.1%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACEL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: ACEL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.05
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $11.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.39 to $12.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+33.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+33.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.39 -
$12.28
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.3% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.39 -
$12.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.16
Resistance Level
$12.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.59
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 12.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.25
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$12.90
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$13.58
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.1%)
$21.51
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 7.1%)
$14.30
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 7.1%)
$12.16
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$16.60
(+43%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$15.09
(+30%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$7.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 12:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derek Harmer
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
3766 shares
2026-03-12
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
172943 shares
2026-03-12
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