ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$12.77
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-2.82%
30d:
+6.42%
90d:
+16.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.20
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $12.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.09 to $13.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.09 -
$13.13
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.09 -
$13.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.57
Resistance Level
$13.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.10
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.96
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$13.16
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$13.35
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.8%)
$30.44
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$18.31
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$15.56
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$22.83
(+79%)
Analyst growth 62.5%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$20.75
(+63%)
Market implied 62.5%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$8.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derek Harmer
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
3766 shares
2026-03-12
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
172943 shares
2026-03-12
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