ACEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACEL - Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.61
-0.10 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
-1.11%
90d:
+7.2%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.20
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACEL is currently trading at $11.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.54 to $12.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+33.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+33.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.5% below Wall St target ($15.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.16
Resistance Level
$12.52
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.91
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+33.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 12.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.42
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$11.24
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$11.06
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$11.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$30.85
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 12.8%)
$16.64
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$14.15
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$20.93
(+80%)
Analyst growth 62.5%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$19.03
(+64%)
Market implied 62.5%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$7.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 12.5
Stabilization Target:
$12.19
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Derek Harmer
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
3766 shares
2026-03-12
Gordon Rubenstein
SELL
172943 shares
2026-03-12
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