ACM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACM - Aecom
$96.43
-1.13 (-1.16%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 09, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.53
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.03
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACM is currently trading at $96.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.60 to $98.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+30.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $94.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+30.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$96.60 -
$98.88
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($126.83)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$96.60 -
$98.88
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.46
Resistance Level
$99.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.93
Wall Street Target
$126.83
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.1%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$95.61
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$93.70
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$91.82
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$97.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 16.4%)
$215.59
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$154.02
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 16.4%)
$130.92
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.79
Bull Case
$137.10
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.8%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$124.64
(+29%)
Market implied 27.8%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$66.29
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$103.49
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Troy Rudd
SELL
53097 shares
2025-08-15
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